Africa Development

Cover page

journal system — 2023-08-24

Cover

0 - Prelim

journal system — 2023-08-24

Special Issue on

Covid-19 Pandemic and African Economies

(Including a Revised Text of the Second

Thandika Mkandawire Annual Memorial Lecture)

Editorial

Badar Alam Iqbal — 2023-08-24

It is a well-established that the promotion of regional development always results in a higher degree of socioeconomic development, for every country or region, whether they are developed, developing or least-developed economies. African economies are no exception to this rule. This idea is even more valid and more relevant for the ongoing economic and social development (two faces of the same coin) of African economies, where there is greater room for accelerating the pace of growth and development.

The role of Africa in the global economy and its contribution has been growing year after year. According to calculations by the African Development Bank (ADB), the growth rate of the aggregate real GDP of African economies was predicted to reach 4.0 per cent in 2019 and 4.1 per cent in 2020. Although these growth rates are still lower than those witnessed by emerging economies, namely China and India, it is believed that African economies will nevertheless exceed the average growth rate in other developing countries and emerging economies.¹

To reach their objectives of attaining quantitative development (higher GDP) and qualitative development (improvement in standard of living and quality of life), African states will have to take integrated and systematic measures aimed at solving the persistent and alarming problems of the continent, such as accelerating the pace of development of the economy, trade and the social sector. Major challenges are still faced by African nations, namely poverty, hunger, disease, lack of education, underdeveloped infrastructures (hard and soft), increasing dependence on resource exports, and the influence of foreign monopolies.

The emerging economies, especially the non-African BRICS countries (including Brazil, Russia, India, and China), in their turn, have been showing increasing interest in the African region in recent years. At the 2022 BRICS Summit, these nations emphasised the need for and significance of achieving progress through collaboration between developing countries, especially global South cooperation, in terms of trade and investment flow, which is the sine qua non for the acceleration of the pace of growth and development. Two emerging economies—China and India—must play the role of promoters, not rivals.

When working for economic and social development for the continent, developed and developing countries must establish backward and forward linkages with African countries. The developed countries of the global North must keep in mind the newly emerging trends of African development, which include the delegation of authority to supranational organisations (the African Union and other regional institutions), ecologically sustainable development of human capital and the infrastructure, formation of the ICT market, development of Big Data and AI, and other equally important processes.

Why a Special Issue?

The general rule on development highlighted above was recently interrupted by the Covid-19 crisis, a crisis that has had far-reaching and direct impact and implications for African economies, not least because it drastically affected the movement of goods and services, resulting in an unbearable consequences on African businesses and SMEs. To what extent has this affected Africa’s role in the global economy?

Keeping in mind the persisting challenges arising out of Covid-19, there was an urgent need to discuss the different issues relating to this pandemic at length. This formed the justification for this issue of Africa Development in which we undertake to examine critical issues that are directly and indirectly related to the impact and implications of Covid-19 on African economies.

In all, eleven papers were received. Out of these, seven were selected for inclusion in this special issue. The papers were vigorously peer reviewed by two reviewers to ensure high scientific quality. These seven papers touch on different issues of Covid-19 and African development. But as it has become a tradition in CODESRIA, we also use the pages of this journal to publish the Thandika Mkandawire Annual Memorial Lecture which was prepared separately by Fiona Tregenna and delivered in 2022.

The Structure of the Papers

The first paper by Felix Fofana N’Zue and Adjoua Math Komenan aims to provide a better understanding of the possible link or interaction between the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in West Africa, as proxied by the

rate of infection, and the state of governance in the ECOWAS countries. The article finds that governance did not significantly impact the Covid-19 infection rate in the ECOWAS region, but tourism and external debt did. The authors then urge development partners to pay close attention to the reliability of Covid-19 confirmed cases to ensure that the data collected is not manipulated for any reasons whatsoever.

The second paper, authored by Tope Akinyetun, examines the regional impact of the pandemic on the security and development in the Sahel. The author finds that Covid-19 exacerbated the threat of insecurity in the region due to pre-existing weak governance, poor state capacity, and climate change, which were already worsening and causing more risks and increasing the severity of violent conflicts. The result of this has been further fragility, loss of income, food insecurity, displacement, loss of livelihood, increased poverty, unemployment, hunger, humanitarian crises and contracting economies.

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1 - Can Africa Run? Industrialisation and Development in Africa

Fiona Tregenna — 2023-08-24

Africa remains the least industrialised region in the world. Yet industrialisation is critical for growth and catching up, as well as for development more broadly. This article begins by discussing industrialisation in Africa through the lens of Thandika Mkandawire’s writings on the subject, within the context of his broader thinking on development. In particular, it reflects on his perspectives on structural change and industrialisation; the phases of industrialisation and deindustrialisation in Africa; the political economy of industrialisation in Africa; social policy and industrialisation; and trade and regional integration. The author provides an analysis of some key issues pertaining to industrial development and policy in Africa and argues that the weaknesses of industrialisation in Africa, and the periodic reversals through premature deindustrialisation, have not only hampered economic growth and development, but have also influenced the political economy of African countries, with wider social and political effects. Similarly, state capacity for industrial policy is built through ‘learning by doing’ in the actual practice of industrial policy. Amongst the key topical issues discussed in the article for industrialisation in Africa are upgrading and technological progress, regional integration, and the greening of industrialisation. A vision is put forward for ‘Transformative Industrialisation for Africa’ (TIfA).

2 - Governance Issues and the Covid-19 Pandemic in West Africa: Are There Any Linkages?

Félix Fofana N'Zue — 2023-08-24

This article contributes to a better understanding of the possible interaction between the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in the ECOWAS countries and the state of governance. More specifically, it determines the relationship between governance and the number of Covid-19 confirmed cases by the end of September 2021, the relationship between tourist arrivals and external debt and the number of confirmed cases. The data was collected over 2020 and 2021. Correlation and multiple regression analysis were used to assess the strength of association between the variables and possible causation respectively. The study found positive and significant correlation between all the governance variables, except for political stability. There was a strong association between tourist arrivals, external debt, and infection rates. Governance did not significantly impact the infection rate, whereas the number of tourists and per capita external debt did so significantly. It is therefore recommended that more stringent actions be taken to reinforce safety measures at all entry points in the ECOWAS region and that development partners look closely at the reliability of the numbers of confirmed cases to ensure th t the data collected is not manipulated simply to attract foreign resources.

3 - From Epidemic to Pandemic: Covid-19, Insecurity and Development in the Sahel

Tope Shola Akinyetun — 2023-08-24

Security is a sine qua non for development. The Sahel is a troubled region and is described as the hotbed of insecurity in Africa. This state of insecurity was compounded by the outbreak of Covid-19. This article examines the regional impact of the pandemic on insecurity and development. It uses a meta-analysis and reviews secondary data to underscore the security and development imbroglio in the Sahel within the context of Covid-19. It was found that Covid-19 exacerbated the insecurity threat in the region due to pre-existing weak governance, poor capacity, grievances and climate change, which had already resulted in fragility, food insecurity, displacement, loss of livelihood, poverty, unemployment, hunger and a humanitarian crisis. The study concludes that armed groups took advantage of the health crisis to prolong conflicts which, coupled with the pre-existing economic conditions, became anathema to development. The article recommends that governments in the region should increase their health budget and enhance their capacity to respond to health emergencies such as the Covid-19 outbreak. The article further recommends that governments in the Sahelian states should prioritise good governance, improved security and regional cooperation to combat poverty.

4 - Covid-19 Lockdown and the ‘Work-From-Home’ Approach: The Effect on Nigerian Academics

Tolulope Osinubi — 2023-08-24

This article investigates the effect of the Covid-19 lockdown and the ‘work- from-home’ approach on academic activities in Nigeria, using bivariate and multivariable regression. The results show that factors such as inadequate power supply, electricity access, workspace and access to research materials, health status and care for children and the elderly during the Covid-19 lockdown were significantly associated with a decline in the time devoted to academic work. On the other hand, virtual teaching or learning and the ability to work from home more often had positive and statistically significant effects on weekly work hours. The study also finds that Covid-19 lockdowns had a stronger negative effect on female researchers than their male counterparts. The implication is that a prolonged lockdown will harm the education system in Nigeria by negatively affecting research outcomes in terms of weekly work hours. Thus, the recommendations emanating from the findings are discussed in the article.

5 - Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Financial Performance of SMEs in Nigeria: A Study of the South East Geopolitical Zone

Stella Okoroafor — 2023-08-24

This article explores the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the financial performance of small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) in the South East geopolitical zone of Nigeria. The study objective was to determine the extent to which the Covid-19 pandemic affected the revenue of SMEs, their profitability and their access to credit. The target population for the study were registered SMEs in the South East geopolitical zone of Nigeria, being Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo. Using purposive sampling method, thirty SME owners from each zone were selected for the study, giving a total of 150 SME owners. The study adopted a quantitative research method, using a questionnaire. The findings revealed that the Covid-19 pandemic significantly reduced the profitability and revenue of SMEs but not their access to credit. The study therefore recommended the need for business owners to minimize cost and look for possible innovations/opportunities to grow sales and improve revenue. Also government should make soft loan available to SMEs to help cushion the effect of the pandemic on their financial performance. Finally, future research should consider other related variables that have not been covered in this article.

6 - Digital Learning Response in the Midst of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case of Mauritius

Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur — 2023-08-24

This article investigates learners’ perception of their ability to adapt to online learning and the challenges they encountered as well as the opportunities they found in this new e-learning environment, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. A comprehensive survey was undertaken using an online questionnaire circulated among male and female students across various faculties at five universities and business schools in Mauritius. The results indicate that Covid-19 was a major disruption in higher education studies. Despite the online learning approach, students enrolled in STEM degrees were more impacted compared to those in non-STEM degrees. Around one-third of the students asserted that online learning was a major challenge, more so for those in the lowest-income group who lacked the necessary digital tools to adapt to this new learning environment. A non-conducive home environment further had a negative bearing on students’ concentration and ability to cope with their studies. We noted that postgraduate students adapt to digital learning better compared to undergraduates. There is thus a need to rethink, revamp and redesign the education system to be prepared for future shocks and build resilience through the application of best practices in the digitalisation of the education system.

7 - Covid-19 Social Relief Programmes and Distribution Mechanisms in East Africa: Lessons Learned

Ivan Kagimu — 2023-08-24

Covid-19 had social, physical and economic impacts that prompted governments to develop strategies to help their citizens cope with the mandatory lockdowns and curfews. East African countries faced several uncertainties and challenges in assisting their citizens, including a lack of funds to implement large-scale relief programmes, effective identification of eligible beneficiaries and viable distribution channels. Some African countries launched cash transfer and social assistance programmes. However, the size, efficiency and proportion of the population covered varied, leading to increased fraud, corruption and embezzlement. Patronage, political exploitation and partisanship were also prevalent. This article aims to assess the success of the East African Covid-19 cash and social assistance programmes and the mechanisms used and to draw lessons by comparing them with effective programmes outside Africa, in order to better inform the efficient design of future similar programmes. Using a data triangulation research methodology, the article finds that the Covid-19 relief programmes in many East African countries failed due to a lack of up-to-date multidimensional data on people's living standards, income and poverty levels. If East African countries are to implement effective social assistance programmes, they need to develop comprehensive and multi-faceted (resident) data collection systems to guide such programmes.

8 - Are the Covid-19 Pandemic and Public Procurement ‘Strange Bedfellows’? An African Perspective

Ismail Abdi Changalima — 2023-08-24

The purpose of this article is to provide insights into how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected public procurement operations, and the role of public procurement during the pandemic. The article synthesises relevant literature on Covid-19 and public procurement in the African context. A review of literature from 2020 to 2022 was done to enrich the findings of the current article, which shows that the Covid-19 pandemic affected public procurement in the form of delays, malpractice, budget reallocations and supply disruptions. Furthermore, during the Covid-19 pandemic it was recommended that public procurement practices be more strategic through collaboration, and respond more quickly in obtaining vaccines and health supplies, which were critical in the prevention and treatment of related illnesses. The article provides several practical implications in terms of ensuring good governance, implementing regulatory frameworks for emergency procurement, improving collaboration among members of comparable regional organisations, and implementing Covid-19 preventative measures. Finally, because the current study’s scope is limited in terms of the selection of published articles and other relevant literature that give insights about the African continent during this period, future studies could be conducted to include literature from outside the African continent in order to broaden the scope of this current study.

9 - Effets de la Covid-19 sur les entreprises du secteur informel agricole au Sénégal

Sidia Diaouma Badiane — 2023-08-24

This article focuses on the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on informal enterprises in the Senegalese agricultural sector. The methodological approach adopted combines a documentary review and descriptive analyzes with the support of data from the survey on “Monitoring of the impact of COVID-19 on informal sector units 2020”, from the National Agency for Statistics and Demography (ANSD). The results of the analysis made it possible to inform the main channels through which the pandemic affected the IPU. It appears that the restrictions linked to the pandemic are mainly the cause of the permanent or temporary closure of the units. Added to this are the difficulties in the supply of raw materials and the sale of products. This negatively affects the turnover of these entrepreneurs. This situation translates into a drop in production of at least 25 per cent for 95.1 per cent of respondents. Consequently, the downward variation of personnel, exclusively men, is noted for 10 per cent of the IPU. It manifests itself in part through the adoption of coping strategies to cope with the effects of the crisis. In this wake, product diversification was a healthy approach for 46.5 per cent of units.

Full Issue

journal system — 2023-08-24

Contents

Editorial

Badar Alam Iqbal.........................................................................................v

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Can Africa Run? Industrialisation and Development in Africa

Fiona Tregenna .................................................................................................. 1

[Revised Text of the Second Thandika Mkandawire Annual Memorial Lecture ]

***

Selected Papers on Covid-19 Pandemic and African Economies

Governance Issues and the Covid-19 Pandemic in West Africa: Are There Any Linkages?

Félix Fofana N'Zue and Adjoua Math Komenan...................................................33

From Epidemic to Pandemic: Covid-19, Insecurity and Development in the Sahel

Tope Shola Akinyetun ..............................................................................................61

Covid-19 Lockdown and the ‘Work-From-Home’ Approach: Effect on Nigerian Academics

Tolulope Osinubi, Cleopatra Ibukun and Titus Ojeyinka..............................................87

Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Financial Performance of SMEs in Nigeria: A Study of the South East Geopolitical Zone

Stella Ngozi Okoroafor.............................................................................107

Digital Learning Response in the Midst of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case of Mauritius

Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur, Boopen Seetanah, Sheereen Fauzel and Viraiyan Teeroovengadum...................................129

Covid-19 Social Relief Programmes and Distribution Mechanisms in East Africa: Lessons Learned

Ivan Kagimu...............................................................................159

Are the Covid-19 Pandemic and Public Procurement ‘Strange Bedfellows’? An African Perspective

Ismail Abdi Changalima..............................................................175

Effets de la Covid-19 sur les entreprises du secteur informel agricole au Sénégal

Sidia Diaouma Badiane, Amadou Tandjigora, Thierno Bachir Sy, Yessoufou et Mamoudou Dème ...................197