1 - Reaching Critical Mass in Nigeria’s Telephone Industry
Corresponding Author(s) : Chuka Onwumechili
Africa Media Review,
Vol. 13 No. 1 (2005): Africa Media Review, Volume 13, n° 1, 2005
Abstract
The sudden and rapid growth in access to telephones in Nigeria has certainly raised major questions for tele-communications scholars. Access to telephones in Nigeria had been marginal by the end of the twentieth century with the teledensity rate well below 1:100 for a country of estimated 130 million persons (Ajayi, Salawu and Raji 1999). Today, over 10 million Nigerians have access, improving the teledensity to 13:100 in barely five years! Growth rates are currently over 100 percent per year. What happened? How was the industry turned around? Has critical mass been reached? Has the rate of growth become selfsustaining? This paper explores all the above questions using the theory of critical mass as the framework for analysis. It concludes that a critical mass of users has been built in the urban centers and that access is rapidly approaching the saturation point. In addition, it argues that much more needs to be done in order to achieve similar growth rates in the rural areas.
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- Adekanmbi, D., 1999, ‘It’s like a Jungle’, The News (Lagos), September 7. (http:// www.africanews.org).
- Ajakaye, T., 2005, ‘MTN Nigeria Earns N119 Billion in 6 Months’, This Day (Ni- geria), November 24. (http://www.ThisDayonline.com/).
- Ajayi, G., Salawu, R. and Raji T., 1999, ‘Nigeria: After a Century of Telecommunica- tions, What Next?’ in E. Noam, ed., Telecommunications in Africa, New York: Oxford University Press. pp. 163–177.
- Aragba-Akpore, S., 1999, ‘Six Million Queue for Telephone Lines’, The Guardian (Nigeria), September 7. (http:// www.ngrguardiannews.com).
- BMI-TechKnowledge, 2001, ‘Telecommunications in Nigeria: A Lot of Funerals and Few Weddings’, July 31. (http://www.bmi-t.com.za).
- Granovetter, M., 1978, ‘Threshold Models of Collective Behavior’, American Jour- nal of Sociology, Vol. 83, No. 6, pp. 1420–1443.
- Hardin, R., 1982, Collective Action, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Kubeyinje, K., 1998, ‘Commission Revokes Licenses’, Business Day (South Africa), June 1. (http://www.Bday.co.za/98).
- Markus, L., 1987, ‘Toward a “Critical Mass” Theory of Interactive Media: Universal Access, Interdependence, and Diffusion’, Communication Research, Vol. 14, pp. 491–511.
- Markus, L., 1990, ‘Toward a “Critical Mass” Theory of Interactive Media’, in J. Fulk and C. Steinfield, eds., Organizations and Communication technology, Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications. pp. 194–218.
- Ndukwe, E., 2004, ‘Connecting the Next Ten Million People in Nigeria’, Paper presented at the Nigerian telecommunications summit, Abuja, Nigeria, No- vember 1.
- Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), 2005, Trends in Telecommunica- tions Markets in Nigeria, 2003–2004, Abuja: NCC.
- Nwankpa, E., 1999, ‘Govt Slashes Phone Subscription Fee to N20,000’, The Guard- ian (Nigeria), August 26. (http:// www.Ngrguardiannews.com/).
- Ojo, A., 2005, ‘Telecoms: The Past is Another Country’, New Age (Nigeria), Janu- ary 1. (http://www. Newage-online.com/).
- Oliver, P. and Marwell, G., 1988, ‘The Paradox of Group Size in Collective Action: A Theory of the
- Critical Mass, II’, American Sociological Review, Vol. 53, pp. 1–8.
- Oliver, P., Marwell, G. and Teixeira, R., 1985, ‘A Theory of Critical Mass: Interde- pendence, Group Heterogeneity, and the Production of Collective Action’, American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 91, No. 3, pp. 522–556.
- Olson, M., 1965, The Logic of Collective Action, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
- Onwumechili, C., 2001, ‘Dream or Reality: Providing Universal Access to Basic Telecommunications in Nigeria?’ Telecommunications Policy, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 219–231.
- Onwumechili, C., 2003, Reform, Organizational Players, and Technological De- velopments in African Telecommunications: An Update, New York: The Edwin Mellen Press.
- Rogers, E., 1983, Diffusion of Innovations, New York: The Free Press.
- Rogers, E., 1991, ‘The “Critical Mass” in the Diffusion of the Interactive Tech- nologies in Organizations’, The Information Systems Research Challenge: Survey Research Methods, Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
- Wogu, U., 1999, ‘FG may Reduce Cost of Telephone Services’, The Guardian (Nigeria), August 14. (http: //www.Ngrguardiannews.com/).
- World Development Indicators, 2005, August. (www.//devdata.worldbank.org). World Factbook,, 2005.
- (http://www.cia.gov/cia/ publications/ factbook/ geos/ni.html).
References
Adekanmbi, D., 1999, ‘It’s like a Jungle’, The News (Lagos), September 7. (http:// www.africanews.org).
Ajakaye, T., 2005, ‘MTN Nigeria Earns N119 Billion in 6 Months’, This Day (Ni- geria), November 24. (http://www.ThisDayonline.com/).
Ajayi, G., Salawu, R. and Raji T., 1999, ‘Nigeria: After a Century of Telecommunica- tions, What Next?’ in E. Noam, ed., Telecommunications in Africa, New York: Oxford University Press. pp. 163–177.
Aragba-Akpore, S., 1999, ‘Six Million Queue for Telephone Lines’, The Guardian (Nigeria), September 7. (http:// www.ngrguardiannews.com).
BMI-TechKnowledge, 2001, ‘Telecommunications in Nigeria: A Lot of Funerals and Few Weddings’, July 31. (http://www.bmi-t.com.za).
Granovetter, M., 1978, ‘Threshold Models of Collective Behavior’, American Jour- nal of Sociology, Vol. 83, No. 6, pp. 1420–1443.
Hardin, R., 1982, Collective Action, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Kubeyinje, K., 1998, ‘Commission Revokes Licenses’, Business Day (South Africa), June 1. (http://www.Bday.co.za/98).
Markus, L., 1987, ‘Toward a “Critical Mass” Theory of Interactive Media: Universal Access, Interdependence, and Diffusion’, Communication Research, Vol. 14, pp. 491–511.
Markus, L., 1990, ‘Toward a “Critical Mass” Theory of Interactive Media’, in J. Fulk and C. Steinfield, eds., Organizations and Communication technology, Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications. pp. 194–218.
Ndukwe, E., 2004, ‘Connecting the Next Ten Million People in Nigeria’, Paper presented at the Nigerian telecommunications summit, Abuja, Nigeria, No- vember 1.
Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), 2005, Trends in Telecommunica- tions Markets in Nigeria, 2003–2004, Abuja: NCC.
Nwankpa, E., 1999, ‘Govt Slashes Phone Subscription Fee to N20,000’, The Guard- ian (Nigeria), August 26. (http:// www.Ngrguardiannews.com/).
Ojo, A., 2005, ‘Telecoms: The Past is Another Country’, New Age (Nigeria), Janu- ary 1. (http://www. Newage-online.com/).
Oliver, P. and Marwell, G., 1988, ‘The Paradox of Group Size in Collective Action: A Theory of the
Critical Mass, II’, American Sociological Review, Vol. 53, pp. 1–8.
Oliver, P., Marwell, G. and Teixeira, R., 1985, ‘A Theory of Critical Mass: Interde- pendence, Group Heterogeneity, and the Production of Collective Action’, American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 91, No. 3, pp. 522–556.
Olson, M., 1965, The Logic of Collective Action, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Onwumechili, C., 2001, ‘Dream or Reality: Providing Universal Access to Basic Telecommunications in Nigeria?’ Telecommunications Policy, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 219–231.
Onwumechili, C., 2003, Reform, Organizational Players, and Technological De- velopments in African Telecommunications: An Update, New York: The Edwin Mellen Press.
Rogers, E., 1983, Diffusion of Innovations, New York: The Free Press.
Rogers, E., 1991, ‘The “Critical Mass” in the Diffusion of the Interactive Tech- nologies in Organizations’, The Information Systems Research Challenge: Survey Research Methods, Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
Wogu, U., 1999, ‘FG may Reduce Cost of Telephone Services’, The Guardian (Nigeria), August 14. (http: //www.Ngrguardiannews.com/).
World Development Indicators, 2005, August. (www.//devdata.worldbank.org). World Factbook,, 2005.
(http://www.cia.gov/cia/ publications/ factbook/ geos/ni.html).