8 - Political Uncertainty and its Impact on Social Service Delivery in Uganda
Corresponding Author(s) : Moses khisa
Africa Development,
Vol. 40 No. 4 (2015): Africa Development
Abstract
A growing body of scholarship has underscored the role of elite bargains and compromises in fostering or obstructing socio-economic transformation. This has been conceptualized in terms of political settlement – a combination of power and institutions that underpins an established socio-political order. The idea of political settlement, associated with the works of Douglas North (and his collaborators), and especially Mushtaq Khan, has gained currency as a key explanatory variable in accounting for the failure of African states to provide quality public goods and services. In the case of Uganda, some scholars have suggested that the country’s current political settlement has failed to provide the basis for achieving structural transformation. This article questions the conceptual validity of political settlement, suggesting instead that a shift of the conceptual aperture reveals deep political uncertainty in Uganda, a key reason why the government of President Museveni and the state apparatus it presides over cannot undertake fundamental transformation. The article argues that political uncertainty in Uganda is manifest in at least four contentious issues: the constitution, electoral disagreements, the ambiguous role of the military and the unsettled question of presidential succession. In an environment of uncertainty, systematic and long-term planning is subordinated to short-term and ad hoc manoeuvres, thus obstructing the building of a firm foundation for structural transformation.
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- Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson, 2001, ‘The colonial origins of comparative development: an empirical investigation’, American Economic Review 91 (5): 1369–401.
- Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson, 2005, ‘Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth’, in P. Aghion and S. Durlauf, eds, Handbook of Economic Growth, Amsterdam: Elsevier.
- Acemoglu, D. and J. Robinson, 2012, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, New York: Crown Publishers.
- Bates, R., 2008, When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late Century Africa, New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Bates, R., 2010, ‘A review of Douglas C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast’s Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History’, Journal of Economic Literature 48 (3): 752–56.
- Bleck, J. and N. van de Walle, 2012, ‘Valence issues in African elections: navigating uncertainty and the weight of the past’, Comparative Political Studies 46 (11): 1394–421.
- Carbone, G., 2008, No-Party Democracy? Ugandan Politics in Comparative Perspective, Boulder, CO and London: Lynne Rienner.
- Collier, D. and J. Gerring, eds, 2009, Concepts and Methods: The Tradition of Giovanni Sartori, London and New York: Routledge.
- Collier, D. and S. Levitsky, 1997, ‘Democracy with adjectives: conceptual innovation in comparative research’, World Politics 49 (3): 430–51.
- Collier, D. and J. Mahon, 1993, ‘Conceptual “stretching” revisited: adapting categories in comparative analysis’, American Political Science Review 87 (4): 845–55.
- Golooba-Mutebi, F. and S. Hickey, 2013, ‘Investigating the Links between Political Settlements and Inclusive Development in Uganda: Towards a Research Agenda’, ESID Working Paper No. 20, Manchester: University of Manchester.
- Green, E., 2010, ‘Patronage, district creation, and reform in Uganda’, Studies in Comparative International Development 45 (1): 83–103.
- Haber, S., A. Razo and N. Maurer, 2003, The Politics of Property Rights: Political Instability, Credible Commitments and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1876–1929, New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Hall, P. and R. Taylor, 1996, ‘Political science and the three new institutionalisms’, Political Studies 44 (5): 936–57.
- Hickey, S., B. Bukenya, A. Izama and W. Kizito, 2015, ‘The Political Settlement and Oil in Uganda’, ESID Working Paper No. 48, Manchester: University of Manchester.
- Huntington, S.P., 1991, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Twentieth Century, Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
- Karugire, S., 1988, The Roots of Instability in Uganda, Kampala: The New Vision Printing and Publishing Corporation.
- Karyeija K G., 2010, ‘Performance Appraisal in Uganda’s Civil Service: Does Administrative Culture Matter?’, PhD Dissertation, University of Bergen.
- Kjær, A.M. and M. Katusiimeh, 2012, ‘Growing but not Transforming: Fragmented Ruling Coalitions and Economic Developments in Uganda’, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Working Paper 7.
- Khan, M.H., 2005, ‘Markets, states and democracy: patron–client networks and the case for democracy in developing countries’, Democratization 12 (5): 704–24.
- Khan, M.H., 2010, ‘Political settlements and the governance of growth-enhancing institutions’, unpublished paper, School of Oriental and African Studies, London.
- Khisa, M., 2014, ‘Challenges to policy implementation in Uganda: reflections on politics and the state’, Ugandan Journal of Management and Public Policy Studies 8 (1).
- Lindemann, S., 2011, ‘Just another change of guard? Broad-based politics and civil war in Museveni’s Uganda’, African Affairs 110 (440): 387–416.
- Lupu, N. and R.B. Riedl, 2012, ‘Political parties and uncertainty in developing democracies’, Comparative Political Studies 46 (11): 1339–65.
- Moe, T.M., 2005, ‘Power and political institutions’, Perspectives on Politics 3 (2): 215–33.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004a, ‘Court nullifies 2000 referendum’, Kampala, 26 June.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004b, ‘Museveni rejects referendum ruling’, Kampala, 28 June.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004c, ‘Courts close over Movement demo’, Kampala, 30 June.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2012, ‘Museveni’s new Benzes cost Shs6b’, Kampala, 12 November.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2013a, ‘Museveni was misquoted over army takeover talk, State House explains’, Kampala, 30 January.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2013b, ‘Probe assassination claims, says Tinye’, Kampala, 7 May.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2014, ‘Ugandan pupils worst at counting, reading in EA’, Kampala, 9 May.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2015, ‘79% of Ugandans born since Museveni took power; how that affects the future’, Kampala, 9 September.
- Mutibwa, P., 1992, Uganda Since Independence: A Story of Unfulfilled Hopes, London: Hurst.
- Mutibwa, P., 2008, The Buganda Factor in Uganda Politics, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
- North, D., 1981, Structure and Change in Economic History, New York: WW Norton & Co.
- North, D., 1990, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance, New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Oduro, F., M. Awal and M.A. Ashon, 2014, ‘A Dynamic Mapping of the Political Settlement in Ghana’, ESID Working Paper No. 28, Manchester: University of Manchester.
- Oloka-Onyango, J., 2000, ‘New Wine or New Bottles? Movement Politics and One-partyism in Uganda’, in Justus Mugaju and Joe Oloka-Onyango, eds, No-party Democracy in Uganda: Myths and Realities, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
- Oloka-Onyango, J., 2013, ‘Towards A New Kind of Politics and Constitutionalism in (B)Uganda’, paper presented at the Buganda Convention at Hotel Africana, Kampala, 18–19 December.
- Ori Amaza, O., 1998, Museveni’s Long March: from Guerilla to Statesman, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
- Posner, D. and D. Young, 2007, ‘The institutionalization of power in Africa’, Journal of Democracy 18 (3).
- Przeworski, A., 1991, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Rubongoya, J., 2007, Regime Hegemony in Museveni’s Uganda: Pax-Musevenica, London and New York: Palgrave.
- Sartori, G., 1970, ‘Concept misformation in comparative politics’, American Political Science Review 64 (4): 1033–53.
- Sjogren, A., 2013, Between Militarism and Technocratic Governance: State Formation in Contemporary Uganda, Kampala and Uppsala: Fountain Publishers and Nordic Africa Institute.
- Slater, D., 2010, Ordering Power: Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia, New York: Cambridge University Press.
- The Observer, 2012a, ‘Museveni-Mbabazi fallout deepens: 2016 project takes shape as President checks Mbabazi power’, Kampala, 3–4 September.
- The Observer, 2012b, ‘MPs blast Museveni, Aronda over coup talk’, Kampala, 25–27 January.
- The Observer, 2012c, ‘Museveni’s new car goes down badly’, Kampala, 12–14 October.
- The Observer, 2013, ‘Museveni donates Shs 5nb in 6 months’, Kampala, 6–7 May.
- The Observer, 2014, ‘Cost of ousting Amama Mbabazi: Museveni spends Shs 75bn to neutralize former premier’, Kampala, 29–30 December.
- Tumushabe, G W., 2009, ‘Trends in Public Administration Expenditure in Uganda: The Cost of the Executive and its Implications on Poverty Eradication and Governance’, ACODE Policy Research Series 27, Kampala: Advocates Coalition on Development and the Environment.
- Wane, W. and G.H. Martin, 2013, ‘Education and Health Services in Uganda: Data for Results and Accountability’, Washington, DC: World Bank.
- Whitfield, L., 2011a, ‘Growth without Economic Transformation: Economic Impacts of Ghana’s Political Settlement’, DIIS Working Paper 28, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies.
- Whitfield, L., 2011b, ‘Competitive Clientelism, Easy Financing and Weak Capitalists: The Contemporary Political Settlement in Ghana’, DIIS Working Paper 27, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies.
- Young, C., 2012, The Postcolonial State in Africa: Fifty Years of Independence, 1960–2010, Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.
References
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson, 2001, ‘The colonial origins of comparative development: an empirical investigation’, American Economic Review 91 (5): 1369–401.
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson, 2005, ‘Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth’, in P. Aghion and S. Durlauf, eds, Handbook of Economic Growth, Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Acemoglu, D. and J. Robinson, 2012, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, New York: Crown Publishers.
Bates, R., 2008, When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late Century Africa, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Bates, R., 2010, ‘A review of Douglas C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast’s Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History’, Journal of Economic Literature 48 (3): 752–56.
Bleck, J. and N. van de Walle, 2012, ‘Valence issues in African elections: navigating uncertainty and the weight of the past’, Comparative Political Studies 46 (11): 1394–421.
Carbone, G., 2008, No-Party Democracy? Ugandan Politics in Comparative Perspective, Boulder, CO and London: Lynne Rienner.
Collier, D. and J. Gerring, eds, 2009, Concepts and Methods: The Tradition of Giovanni Sartori, London and New York: Routledge.
Collier, D. and S. Levitsky, 1997, ‘Democracy with adjectives: conceptual innovation in comparative research’, World Politics 49 (3): 430–51.
Collier, D. and J. Mahon, 1993, ‘Conceptual “stretching” revisited: adapting categories in comparative analysis’, American Political Science Review 87 (4): 845–55.
Golooba-Mutebi, F. and S. Hickey, 2013, ‘Investigating the Links between Political Settlements and Inclusive Development in Uganda: Towards a Research Agenda’, ESID Working Paper No. 20, Manchester: University of Manchester.
Green, E., 2010, ‘Patronage, district creation, and reform in Uganda’, Studies in Comparative International Development 45 (1): 83–103.
Haber, S., A. Razo and N. Maurer, 2003, The Politics of Property Rights: Political Instability, Credible Commitments and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1876–1929, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Hall, P. and R. Taylor, 1996, ‘Political science and the three new institutionalisms’, Political Studies 44 (5): 936–57.
Hickey, S., B. Bukenya, A. Izama and W. Kizito, 2015, ‘The Political Settlement and Oil in Uganda’, ESID Working Paper No. 48, Manchester: University of Manchester.
Huntington, S.P., 1991, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Twentieth Century, Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
Karugire, S., 1988, The Roots of Instability in Uganda, Kampala: The New Vision Printing and Publishing Corporation.
Karyeija K G., 2010, ‘Performance Appraisal in Uganda’s Civil Service: Does Administrative Culture Matter?’, PhD Dissertation, University of Bergen.
Kjær, A.M. and M. Katusiimeh, 2012, ‘Growing but not Transforming: Fragmented Ruling Coalitions and Economic Developments in Uganda’, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Working Paper 7.
Khan, M.H., 2005, ‘Markets, states and democracy: patron–client networks and the case for democracy in developing countries’, Democratization 12 (5): 704–24.
Khan, M.H., 2010, ‘Political settlements and the governance of growth-enhancing institutions’, unpublished paper, School of Oriental and African Studies, London.
Khisa, M., 2014, ‘Challenges to policy implementation in Uganda: reflections on politics and the state’, Ugandan Journal of Management and Public Policy Studies 8 (1).
Lindemann, S., 2011, ‘Just another change of guard? Broad-based politics and civil war in Museveni’s Uganda’, African Affairs 110 (440): 387–416.
Lupu, N. and R.B. Riedl, 2012, ‘Political parties and uncertainty in developing democracies’, Comparative Political Studies 46 (11): 1339–65.
Moe, T.M., 2005, ‘Power and political institutions’, Perspectives on Politics 3 (2): 215–33.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004a, ‘Court nullifies 2000 referendum’, Kampala, 26 June.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004b, ‘Museveni rejects referendum ruling’, Kampala, 28 June.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004c, ‘Courts close over Movement demo’, Kampala, 30 June.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2012, ‘Museveni’s new Benzes cost Shs6b’, Kampala, 12 November.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2013a, ‘Museveni was misquoted over army takeover talk, State House explains’, Kampala, 30 January.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2013b, ‘Probe assassination claims, says Tinye’, Kampala, 7 May.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2014, ‘Ugandan pupils worst at counting, reading in EA’, Kampala, 9 May.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2015, ‘79% of Ugandans born since Museveni took power; how that affects the future’, Kampala, 9 September.
Mutibwa, P., 1992, Uganda Since Independence: A Story of Unfulfilled Hopes, London: Hurst.
Mutibwa, P., 2008, The Buganda Factor in Uganda Politics, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
North, D., 1981, Structure and Change in Economic History, New York: WW Norton & Co.
North, D., 1990, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Oduro, F., M. Awal and M.A. Ashon, 2014, ‘A Dynamic Mapping of the Political Settlement in Ghana’, ESID Working Paper No. 28, Manchester: University of Manchester.
Oloka-Onyango, J., 2000, ‘New Wine or New Bottles? Movement Politics and One-partyism in Uganda’, in Justus Mugaju and Joe Oloka-Onyango, eds, No-party Democracy in Uganda: Myths and Realities, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
Oloka-Onyango, J., 2013, ‘Towards A New Kind of Politics and Constitutionalism in (B)Uganda’, paper presented at the Buganda Convention at Hotel Africana, Kampala, 18–19 December.
Ori Amaza, O., 1998, Museveni’s Long March: from Guerilla to Statesman, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
Posner, D. and D. Young, 2007, ‘The institutionalization of power in Africa’, Journal of Democracy 18 (3).
Przeworski, A., 1991, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Rubongoya, J., 2007, Regime Hegemony in Museveni’s Uganda: Pax-Musevenica, London and New York: Palgrave.
Sartori, G., 1970, ‘Concept misformation in comparative politics’, American Political Science Review 64 (4): 1033–53.
Sjogren, A., 2013, Between Militarism and Technocratic Governance: State Formation in Contemporary Uganda, Kampala and Uppsala: Fountain Publishers and Nordic Africa Institute.
Slater, D., 2010, Ordering Power: Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia, New York: Cambridge University Press.
The Observer, 2012a, ‘Museveni-Mbabazi fallout deepens: 2016 project takes shape as President checks Mbabazi power’, Kampala, 3–4 September.
The Observer, 2012b, ‘MPs blast Museveni, Aronda over coup talk’, Kampala, 25–27 January.
The Observer, 2012c, ‘Museveni’s new car goes down badly’, Kampala, 12–14 October.
The Observer, 2013, ‘Museveni donates Shs 5nb in 6 months’, Kampala, 6–7 May.
The Observer, 2014, ‘Cost of ousting Amama Mbabazi: Museveni spends Shs 75bn to neutralize former premier’, Kampala, 29–30 December.
Tumushabe, G W., 2009, ‘Trends in Public Administration Expenditure in Uganda: The Cost of the Executive and its Implications on Poverty Eradication and Governance’, ACODE Policy Research Series 27, Kampala: Advocates Coalition on Development and the Environment.
Wane, W. and G.H. Martin, 2013, ‘Education and Health Services in Uganda: Data for Results and Accountability’, Washington, DC: World Bank.
Whitfield, L., 2011a, ‘Growth without Economic Transformation: Economic Impacts of Ghana’s Political Settlement’, DIIS Working Paper 28, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies.
Whitfield, L., 2011b, ‘Competitive Clientelism, Easy Financing and Weak Capitalists: The Contemporary Political Settlement in Ghana’, DIIS Working Paper 27, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies.
Young, C., 2012, The Postcolonial State in Africa: Fifty Years of Independence, 1960–2010, Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.