8 - Political Uncertainty and its Impact on Social Service Delivery in Uganda
Corresponding Author(s) : Moses khisa
Afrique et développement,
Vol. 40 No 4 (2015): Afrique et développement
Résumé
Un nombre croissant de recherches a mis en évidence le rôle des négociations et des compromis des élites dans la promotion de la transformation socio- économique et l’entrave à celle-ci. Cela a été conceptualisé sous le terme règlement politique, une combinaison de pouvoirs et d’institutions qui sous-tend un ordre socio-politique établi. L’idée de règlement politique, associée aux travaux de Douglas North (et ses collaborateurs), et surtout Mushtaq Khan, s’est répandue comme une variable-clé explicative pour justifier l’échec des Etats africains à fournir des biens et des services publics de qualité. Dans le cas de l’Ouganda, certains chercheurs ont suggéré que le règlement politique actuel du pays n’a pas réussi à jeter les bases de la réalisation de la transformation structurelle. Cet article remet en question la validité conceptuelle du règlement politique, suggérant plutôt qu’un changement de l’ouverture conceptuelle révèle une profonde incertitude politique, un facteur-clé pour expliquer pourquoi le gouvernement du président Museveni et l’appareil d’Etat qu’il préside ne peuvent pas entreprendre une transformation fondamentale. L’article soutient que l’incertitude politique en Ouganda est manifeste dans au moins quatre questions non encore résolues : la constitution, le désaccord sur les élections, le rôle ambigu de l’armée et la question en suspens de la succession présidentielle. Dans un contexte d’incertitude politique, la planification systématique et à long terme a été subordonnée aux manœuvres à court terme et ad-hoc, entravant ainsi la construction d’une base solide pour la transformation structurelle.
Mots-clés
Télécharger la référence bibliographique
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- Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson, 2001, ‘The colonial origins of comparative development: an empirical investigation’, American Economic Review 91 (5): 1369–401.
- Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson, 2005, ‘Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth’, in P. Aghion and S. Durlauf, eds, Handbook of Economic Growth, Amsterdam: Elsevier.
- Acemoglu, D. and J. Robinson, 2012, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, New York: Crown Publishers.
- Bates, R., 2008, When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late Century Africa, New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Bates, R., 2010, ‘A review of Douglas C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast’s Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History’, Journal of Economic Literature 48 (3): 752–56.
- Bleck, J. and N. van de Walle, 2012, ‘Valence issues in African elections: navigating uncertainty and the weight of the past’, Comparative Political Studies 46 (11): 1394–421.
- Carbone, G., 2008, No-Party Democracy? Ugandan Politics in Comparative Perspective, Boulder, CO and London: Lynne Rienner.
- Collier, D. and J. Gerring, eds, 2009, Concepts and Methods: The Tradition of Giovanni Sartori, London and New York: Routledge.
- Collier, D. and S. Levitsky, 1997, ‘Democracy with adjectives: conceptual innovation in comparative research’, World Politics 49 (3): 430–51.
- Collier, D. and J. Mahon, 1993, ‘Conceptual “stretching” revisited: adapting categories in comparative analysis’, American Political Science Review 87 (4): 845–55.
- Golooba-Mutebi, F. and S. Hickey, 2013, ‘Investigating the Links between Political Settlements and Inclusive Development in Uganda: Towards a Research Agenda’, ESID Working Paper No. 20, Manchester: University of Manchester.
- Green, E., 2010, ‘Patronage, district creation, and reform in Uganda’, Studies in Comparative International Development 45 (1): 83–103.
- Haber, S., A. Razo and N. Maurer, 2003, The Politics of Property Rights: Political Instability, Credible Commitments and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1876–1929, New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Hall, P. and R. Taylor, 1996, ‘Political science and the three new institutionalisms’, Political Studies 44 (5): 936–57.
- Hickey, S., B. Bukenya, A. Izama and W. Kizito, 2015, ‘The Political Settlement and Oil in Uganda’, ESID Working Paper No. 48, Manchester: University of Manchester.
- Huntington, S.P., 1991, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Twentieth Century, Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
- Karugire, S., 1988, The Roots of Instability in Uganda, Kampala: The New Vision Printing and Publishing Corporation.
- Karyeija K G., 2010, ‘Performance Appraisal in Uganda’s Civil Service: Does Administrative Culture Matter?’, PhD Dissertation, University of Bergen.
- Kjær, A.M. and M. Katusiimeh, 2012, ‘Growing but not Transforming: Fragmented Ruling Coalitions and Economic Developments in Uganda’, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Working Paper 7.
- Khan, M.H., 2005, ‘Markets, states and democracy: patron–client networks and the case for democracy in developing countries’, Democratization 12 (5): 704–24.
- Khan, M.H., 2010, ‘Political settlements and the governance of growth-enhancing institutions’, unpublished paper, School of Oriental and African Studies, London.
- Khisa, M., 2014, ‘Challenges to policy implementation in Uganda: reflections on politics and the state’, Ugandan Journal of Management and Public Policy Studies 8 (1).
- Lindemann, S., 2011, ‘Just another change of guard? Broad-based politics and civil war in Museveni’s Uganda’, African Affairs 110 (440): 387–416.
- Lupu, N. and R.B. Riedl, 2012, ‘Political parties and uncertainty in developing democracies’, Comparative Political Studies 46 (11): 1339–65.
- Moe, T.M., 2005, ‘Power and political institutions’, Perspectives on Politics 3 (2): 215–33.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004a, ‘Court nullifies 2000 referendum’, Kampala, 26 June.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004b, ‘Museveni rejects referendum ruling’, Kampala, 28 June.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004c, ‘Courts close over Movement demo’, Kampala, 30 June.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2012, ‘Museveni’s new Benzes cost Shs6b’, Kampala, 12 November.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2013a, ‘Museveni was misquoted over army takeover talk, State House explains’, Kampala, 30 January.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2013b, ‘Probe assassination claims, says Tinye’, Kampala, 7 May.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2014, ‘Ugandan pupils worst at counting, reading in EA’, Kampala, 9 May.
- Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2015, ‘79% of Ugandans born since Museveni took power; how that affects the future’, Kampala, 9 September.
- Mutibwa, P., 1992, Uganda Since Independence: A Story of Unfulfilled Hopes, London: Hurst.
- Mutibwa, P., 2008, The Buganda Factor in Uganda Politics, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
- North, D., 1981, Structure and Change in Economic History, New York: WW Norton & Co.
- North, D., 1990, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance, New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Oduro, F., M. Awal and M.A. Ashon, 2014, ‘A Dynamic Mapping of the Political Settlement in Ghana’, ESID Working Paper No. 28, Manchester: University of Manchester.
- Oloka-Onyango, J., 2000, ‘New Wine or New Bottles? Movement Politics and One-partyism in Uganda’, in Justus Mugaju and Joe Oloka-Onyango, eds, No-party Democracy in Uganda: Myths and Realities, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
- Oloka-Onyango, J., 2013, ‘Towards A New Kind of Politics and Constitutionalism in (B)Uganda’, paper presented at the Buganda Convention at Hotel Africana, Kampala, 18–19 December.
- Ori Amaza, O., 1998, Museveni’s Long March: from Guerilla to Statesman, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
- Posner, D. and D. Young, 2007, ‘The institutionalization of power in Africa’, Journal of Democracy 18 (3).
- Przeworski, A., 1991, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Rubongoya, J., 2007, Regime Hegemony in Museveni’s Uganda: Pax-Musevenica, London and New York: Palgrave.
- Sartori, G., 1970, ‘Concept misformation in comparative politics’, American Political Science Review 64 (4): 1033–53.
- Sjogren, A., 2013, Between Militarism and Technocratic Governance: State Formation in Contemporary Uganda, Kampala and Uppsala: Fountain Publishers and Nordic Africa Institute.
- Slater, D., 2010, Ordering Power: Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia, New York: Cambridge University Press.
- The Observer, 2012a, ‘Museveni-Mbabazi fallout deepens: 2016 project takes shape as President checks Mbabazi power’, Kampala, 3–4 September.
- The Observer, 2012b, ‘MPs blast Museveni, Aronda over coup talk’, Kampala, 25–27 January.
- The Observer, 2012c, ‘Museveni’s new car goes down badly’, Kampala, 12–14 October.
- The Observer, 2013, ‘Museveni donates Shs 5nb in 6 months’, Kampala, 6–7 May.
- The Observer, 2014, ‘Cost of ousting Amama Mbabazi: Museveni spends Shs 75bn to neutralize former premier’, Kampala, 29–30 December.
- Tumushabe, G W., 2009, ‘Trends in Public Administration Expenditure in Uganda: The Cost of the Executive and its Implications on Poverty Eradication and Governance’, ACODE Policy Research Series 27, Kampala: Advocates Coalition on Development and the Environment.
- Wane, W. and G.H. Martin, 2013, ‘Education and Health Services in Uganda: Data for Results and Accountability’, Washington, DC: World Bank.
- Whitfield, L., 2011a, ‘Growth without Economic Transformation: Economic Impacts of Ghana’s Political Settlement’, DIIS Working Paper 28, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies.
- Whitfield, L., 2011b, ‘Competitive Clientelism, Easy Financing and Weak Capitalists: The Contemporary Political Settlement in Ghana’, DIIS Working Paper 27, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies.
- Young, C., 2012, The Postcolonial State in Africa: Fifty Years of Independence, 1960–2010, Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.
Les références
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson, 2001, ‘The colonial origins of comparative development: an empirical investigation’, American Economic Review 91 (5): 1369–401.
Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson, 2005, ‘Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth’, in P. Aghion and S. Durlauf, eds, Handbook of Economic Growth, Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Acemoglu, D. and J. Robinson, 2012, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, New York: Crown Publishers.
Bates, R., 2008, When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late Century Africa, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Bates, R., 2010, ‘A review of Douglas C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast’s Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History’, Journal of Economic Literature 48 (3): 752–56.
Bleck, J. and N. van de Walle, 2012, ‘Valence issues in African elections: navigating uncertainty and the weight of the past’, Comparative Political Studies 46 (11): 1394–421.
Carbone, G., 2008, No-Party Democracy? Ugandan Politics in Comparative Perspective, Boulder, CO and London: Lynne Rienner.
Collier, D. and J. Gerring, eds, 2009, Concepts and Methods: The Tradition of Giovanni Sartori, London and New York: Routledge.
Collier, D. and S. Levitsky, 1997, ‘Democracy with adjectives: conceptual innovation in comparative research’, World Politics 49 (3): 430–51.
Collier, D. and J. Mahon, 1993, ‘Conceptual “stretching” revisited: adapting categories in comparative analysis’, American Political Science Review 87 (4): 845–55.
Golooba-Mutebi, F. and S. Hickey, 2013, ‘Investigating the Links between Political Settlements and Inclusive Development in Uganda: Towards a Research Agenda’, ESID Working Paper No. 20, Manchester: University of Manchester.
Green, E., 2010, ‘Patronage, district creation, and reform in Uganda’, Studies in Comparative International Development 45 (1): 83–103.
Haber, S., A. Razo and N. Maurer, 2003, The Politics of Property Rights: Political Instability, Credible Commitments and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1876–1929, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Hall, P. and R. Taylor, 1996, ‘Political science and the three new institutionalisms’, Political Studies 44 (5): 936–57.
Hickey, S., B. Bukenya, A. Izama and W. Kizito, 2015, ‘The Political Settlement and Oil in Uganda’, ESID Working Paper No. 48, Manchester: University of Manchester.
Huntington, S.P., 1991, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Twentieth Century, Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
Karugire, S., 1988, The Roots of Instability in Uganda, Kampala: The New Vision Printing and Publishing Corporation.
Karyeija K G., 2010, ‘Performance Appraisal in Uganda’s Civil Service: Does Administrative Culture Matter?’, PhD Dissertation, University of Bergen.
Kjær, A.M. and M. Katusiimeh, 2012, ‘Growing but not Transforming: Fragmented Ruling Coalitions and Economic Developments in Uganda’, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Working Paper 7.
Khan, M.H., 2005, ‘Markets, states and democracy: patron–client networks and the case for democracy in developing countries’, Democratization 12 (5): 704–24.
Khan, M.H., 2010, ‘Political settlements and the governance of growth-enhancing institutions’, unpublished paper, School of Oriental and African Studies, London.
Khisa, M., 2014, ‘Challenges to policy implementation in Uganda: reflections on politics and the state’, Ugandan Journal of Management and Public Policy Studies 8 (1).
Lindemann, S., 2011, ‘Just another change of guard? Broad-based politics and civil war in Museveni’s Uganda’, African Affairs 110 (440): 387–416.
Lupu, N. and R.B. Riedl, 2012, ‘Political parties and uncertainty in developing democracies’, Comparative Political Studies 46 (11): 1339–65.
Moe, T.M., 2005, ‘Power and political institutions’, Perspectives on Politics 3 (2): 215–33.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004a, ‘Court nullifies 2000 referendum’, Kampala, 26 June.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004b, ‘Museveni rejects referendum ruling’, Kampala, 28 June.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2004c, ‘Courts close over Movement demo’, Kampala, 30 June.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2012, ‘Museveni’s new Benzes cost Shs6b’, Kampala, 12 November.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2013a, ‘Museveni was misquoted over army takeover talk, State House explains’, Kampala, 30 January.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2013b, ‘Probe assassination claims, says Tinye’, Kampala, 7 May.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2014, ‘Ugandan pupils worst at counting, reading in EA’, Kampala, 9 May.
Monitor/Daily Monitor, 2015, ‘79% of Ugandans born since Museveni took power; how that affects the future’, Kampala, 9 September.
Mutibwa, P., 1992, Uganda Since Independence: A Story of Unfulfilled Hopes, London: Hurst.
Mutibwa, P., 2008, The Buganda Factor in Uganda Politics, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
North, D., 1981, Structure and Change in Economic History, New York: WW Norton & Co.
North, D., 1990, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Oduro, F., M. Awal and M.A. Ashon, 2014, ‘A Dynamic Mapping of the Political Settlement in Ghana’, ESID Working Paper No. 28, Manchester: University of Manchester.
Oloka-Onyango, J., 2000, ‘New Wine or New Bottles? Movement Politics and One-partyism in Uganda’, in Justus Mugaju and Joe Oloka-Onyango, eds, No-party Democracy in Uganda: Myths and Realities, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
Oloka-Onyango, J., 2013, ‘Towards A New Kind of Politics and Constitutionalism in (B)Uganda’, paper presented at the Buganda Convention at Hotel Africana, Kampala, 18–19 December.
Ori Amaza, O., 1998, Museveni’s Long March: from Guerilla to Statesman, Kampala: Fountain Publishers.
Posner, D. and D. Young, 2007, ‘The institutionalization of power in Africa’, Journal of Democracy 18 (3).
Przeworski, A., 1991, Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Rubongoya, J., 2007, Regime Hegemony in Museveni’s Uganda: Pax-Musevenica, London and New York: Palgrave.
Sartori, G., 1970, ‘Concept misformation in comparative politics’, American Political Science Review 64 (4): 1033–53.
Sjogren, A., 2013, Between Militarism and Technocratic Governance: State Formation in Contemporary Uganda, Kampala and Uppsala: Fountain Publishers and Nordic Africa Institute.
Slater, D., 2010, Ordering Power: Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia, New York: Cambridge University Press.
The Observer, 2012a, ‘Museveni-Mbabazi fallout deepens: 2016 project takes shape as President checks Mbabazi power’, Kampala, 3–4 September.
The Observer, 2012b, ‘MPs blast Museveni, Aronda over coup talk’, Kampala, 25–27 January.
The Observer, 2012c, ‘Museveni’s new car goes down badly’, Kampala, 12–14 October.
The Observer, 2013, ‘Museveni donates Shs 5nb in 6 months’, Kampala, 6–7 May.
The Observer, 2014, ‘Cost of ousting Amama Mbabazi: Museveni spends Shs 75bn to neutralize former premier’, Kampala, 29–30 December.
Tumushabe, G W., 2009, ‘Trends in Public Administration Expenditure in Uganda: The Cost of the Executive and its Implications on Poverty Eradication and Governance’, ACODE Policy Research Series 27, Kampala: Advocates Coalition on Development and the Environment.
Wane, W. and G.H. Martin, 2013, ‘Education and Health Services in Uganda: Data for Results and Accountability’, Washington, DC: World Bank.
Whitfield, L., 2011a, ‘Growth without Economic Transformation: Economic Impacts of Ghana’s Political Settlement’, DIIS Working Paper 28, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies.
Whitfield, L., 2011b, ‘Competitive Clientelism, Easy Financing and Weak Capitalists: The Contemporary Political Settlement in Ghana’, DIIS Working Paper 27, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies.
Young, C., 2012, The Postcolonial State in Africa: Fifty Years of Independence, 1960–2010, Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.