6 - Climate Information for Development: An Integrated Dissemination Model
Corresponding Author(s) : Aondover Augustine Tarhule
Afrique et développement,
Vol. 32 No 4 (2007): Afrique et développement
Résumé
L’auteur de cette étude décrit un nouveau modèle conceptuel de recherche climatologique et de diffusion des prévisions saisonnières pour l’Afrique de l’Ouest. Ce modèle a été élaboré à partir d’une enquête menée auprès de 600 utilisateurs d’informations météorologiques et de vingt-sept organisations dans quatre pays d’Afrique de l’Ouest, à savoir le Burkina Faso, le Mali, le Niger et le Nigeria. Malgré les énormes progrès réalisés dans le domaine de la recherche climatologique et des prévisions météorologiques, la majorité des pays africains continuent à souffrir de l’impact de fluctuations climatiques qui les frappent de plein fouet du entraînant de graves implications défavorables à la croissance économique et au développement. Ces pays n’ont encore jamais fait l’expérience des bienfaits de la recherche climatologique en matière d’atténuation d’un tel impact. Le gros défi à relever est le manque d’accès aux informations météorologiques et l’incapacité de réagir à ces informations des groupes et insti- tutions vulnérables et des agences chargées de gérer les impacts des fluctuations climatiques. En outre, les agences de financement à l’extérieur du continent poussent la plus grande partie des travaux de recherche sur la dynamique du climat africain. De fait, peu de pays africains ont les ressources, l’expertise tech- nique et, dans certains cas, l’engagement politique nécessaire pour donner la priorité requise à la recherche climatologique et environnementale. Il importe donc de développer des stratégies novatrices leur permettant de tirer profit des résultats de la recherche climatologique. Le modèle proposé comporte des ar- chives et une base de données régionales pouvant servir à tous travaux de recher- che sur les fluctuations climatiques en Afrique de l’Ouest. Il s’agit d’améliorer l’accès aux nouveaux résultats de la recherche et aux nouvelles technologies, et d’éviter les doubles emplois. Un second grand volet comporte un institut affecté aux essais, validations et adaptations requis par la recherche pour des applica- tions pratiques dans des conditions locales. Ce modèle illustre clairement les routes des échanges d’informations sur la recherche climatologique et des liens à nouer entre chercheurs, décideurs, médiats et utilisateurs finaux. Bien que fondé sur la Recherche en Afrique de l’Ouest, ce modèle peut facilement être adapté à d’autres régions de l’Afrique.
Mots-clés
Télécharger la référence bibliographique
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)BibTeX
- Abt Associates, 2002, Mozambique 1999-2000 Floods Impact Evaluation, Washington, DC: USAID. Available online at http://www.sarpn.org.za/documents/d0000811/index.php.
- Benson, C., 1994, Drought and Macroeconomic Performance: A Comparative Analysis of Six Sub-Saharan African Economies, Mimeo. London: Overseas Development Institute.
- Benson, C. and Clay, E., 1986, ‘Food Aid and Food Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: Statistical Trends and Implications’, Disasters Vol. 10, pp. 303-316.
- Benson, C. and Clay, E., 1998, The Impact of Drought on Sub-Saharan African Economics: A Preliminary Examination. World Bank Technical Paper No. 401, Washington DC: World Bank.
- Berg, E., 1975, The Economic Impact of Drought and Inflation in the Sahel Based on the Recent Economic Evolution of the Sahel. Prepared by the University of Michigan for the U.S. Agency for International Development. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan.
- Foley, G., Floor, W., Madon, G., Lawali, E. M., Montagne, P., and Tounao, K., 1997, The Niger Household Project: Promoting Rural Fuelwood Markets and Village Management of Natural Woodlands, World Bank Technical Paper No. 362, Washington, DC: World Bank.
- Garbrecht, J., Meinke, H., Sivakumar, M. V., Motha, R. P., and Salinger, M.J., 2005, ‘Seasonal Climate Forecast and Adoption by Agriculture’, EOS, Vol. 86, No. 24.
- Glantz, M., 1994, ‘The West African Sahel’, in M. Glantz, ed., Drought Follows the Plow, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 33-43.
- Ingram, K. T., Roncoli, M. C., and Kirshen, P. H., 2002, ‘Opportunities and Constraints for Farmers of West Africa to Use Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts, with Burkina Faso as a Case Study, Agric. Syst., Vol. 74, pp. 331-339.
- Jury, M. R., 2002, ‘Economic Impacts of Climate Variability in South Africa and Development of Resource Prediction Models, Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 41, pp. 46-55.
- Kirshen, P. H., and Flitcroft, I. D., 2000, ‘Use of Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Agricultural Production in West Africa: An Institutional Analysis of Burkina Faso’, Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 24, pp. 184-195.
- Lamb, P. J., 1978, ‘Large-scale Tropical Atlantic Surface Circulation Patterns Associated with Subsaharan Weather Anomalies’, Tellus, Vol. 30, pp. 240- 251.
- Le Barbé L., and Lebel, T., 1997, ‘Rainfall Climatology of the HAPEX-Sahel Region during the Years 1950-1990’, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 188-189, pp. 43-73.
- Nicholson, S. E., 2000, ‘Land Surface Processes and Sahel Climate’, Rev.Geophys., Vol. 38, pp. 117–139.
- O’Brien, K., Sygna, L., Naess, L. O., Kingamkono, R., and Hochobeb, B., 2000, Is Information Enough? User Responses to Climate Forecasts in Southern Africa. Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research Technical Report 3:2000. Available online at www.cicero.uio.no/media/22.pdf.
- O’Keefe, P., and Wisner, B., 1975, ‘African Drought: The State of the Game’, Afr. Environ. Probl. Perspect, Vol. 1, pp. 31–39.
- Regional Climate Outlook Forums Review Organising Committee, 2001, Coping with Climate: A Way Forward, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Publication IRI-CW/01/1,
- Roncoli, C., Ingram, K. and Kirshen, P., 2001, ‘The Costs and Risks of Coping with Drought: Livelihood Impacts and Farmers’ Responses in Burkina Faso’, Climate Res., Vol. 19, pp. 119-132.
- Roncoli, C., Ingram, K. and Kirshen, P., 2002, ‘Reading the Rains: Local Knowledge and Rainfall Forecasting in Burkina Faso’, Soc. Nat. Resour, Vol. 15, pp. 409-424.
- Späth, H-J., 1997, ‘Fuelwood Crisis of Niamey: Vanishing Forests and Development of an Arid Island in the Sahel of Niger’, in H-J. Späth, ed., Land Use and Desertification in North and West Africa, Paderborner Geographische Studien, Band 6, pp. 55-88.
- Stern, P. C., and Easterling, W. E., eds., 1999, Making Climate Forecasts Matter, Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
- Tarhule, A., 2005, ‘Damaging Rainfall and Flooding: The Other Sahel Hazards’, Climatic Change, Vol. 72, pp. 355-377.
- Tarhule, A., and Lamb, P. J., 2003, Climate Research and Seasonal Forecasting for West Africans: Perceptions, Dissemination and Use?’, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 84, No. 12, pp. 1741-1759.
- Tidjani, A. A., 1998, ‘Naufrage à la Vallée aux chauve souris’, Le Sahel, No. 5591, 23 July, 5.
- USAID, 1999, FEWS Current Vulnerability Assessment Guidance Mannual, Washington DC: USAID. Available online at http:/fews.org/va/vahome.html. USAID, 2000, FEWS Sahel 1999/2000 Current Vulnerability Assessment, Washington DC: USAID. Available online at http://fews.org/va/vahome.html.
- Van Apeldoorn, J. G., 1981, Perspectives on Drought and Famine in Nigeria. New York: Allen and Unwin.
- World Bank, 1991, Food Security and Disasters in Africa: A Framework for Action. Africa Technical Department, Washington, DC: World Bank.
Les références
Abt Associates, 2002, Mozambique 1999-2000 Floods Impact Evaluation, Washington, DC: USAID. Available online at http://www.sarpn.org.za/documents/d0000811/index.php.
Benson, C., 1994, Drought and Macroeconomic Performance: A Comparative Analysis of Six Sub-Saharan African Economies, Mimeo. London: Overseas Development Institute.
Benson, C. and Clay, E., 1986, ‘Food Aid and Food Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: Statistical Trends and Implications’, Disasters Vol. 10, pp. 303-316.
Benson, C. and Clay, E., 1998, The Impact of Drought on Sub-Saharan African Economics: A Preliminary Examination. World Bank Technical Paper No. 401, Washington DC: World Bank.
Berg, E., 1975, The Economic Impact of Drought and Inflation in the Sahel Based on the Recent Economic Evolution of the Sahel. Prepared by the University of Michigan for the U.S. Agency for International Development. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan.
Foley, G., Floor, W., Madon, G., Lawali, E. M., Montagne, P., and Tounao, K., 1997, The Niger Household Project: Promoting Rural Fuelwood Markets and Village Management of Natural Woodlands, World Bank Technical Paper No. 362, Washington, DC: World Bank.
Garbrecht, J., Meinke, H., Sivakumar, M. V., Motha, R. P., and Salinger, M.J., 2005, ‘Seasonal Climate Forecast and Adoption by Agriculture’, EOS, Vol. 86, No. 24.
Glantz, M., 1994, ‘The West African Sahel’, in M. Glantz, ed., Drought Follows the Plow, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 33-43.
Ingram, K. T., Roncoli, M. C., and Kirshen, P. H., 2002, ‘Opportunities and Constraints for Farmers of West Africa to Use Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts, with Burkina Faso as a Case Study, Agric. Syst., Vol. 74, pp. 331-339.
Jury, M. R., 2002, ‘Economic Impacts of Climate Variability in South Africa and Development of Resource Prediction Models, Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 41, pp. 46-55.
Kirshen, P. H., and Flitcroft, I. D., 2000, ‘Use of Seasonal Forecasting to Improve Agricultural Production in West Africa: An Institutional Analysis of Burkina Faso’, Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 24, pp. 184-195.
Lamb, P. J., 1978, ‘Large-scale Tropical Atlantic Surface Circulation Patterns Associated with Subsaharan Weather Anomalies’, Tellus, Vol. 30, pp. 240- 251.
Le Barbé L., and Lebel, T., 1997, ‘Rainfall Climatology of the HAPEX-Sahel Region during the Years 1950-1990’, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 188-189, pp. 43-73.
Nicholson, S. E., 2000, ‘Land Surface Processes and Sahel Climate’, Rev.Geophys., Vol. 38, pp. 117–139.
O’Brien, K., Sygna, L., Naess, L. O., Kingamkono, R., and Hochobeb, B., 2000, Is Information Enough? User Responses to Climate Forecasts in Southern Africa. Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research Technical Report 3:2000. Available online at www.cicero.uio.no/media/22.pdf.
O’Keefe, P., and Wisner, B., 1975, ‘African Drought: The State of the Game’, Afr. Environ. Probl. Perspect, Vol. 1, pp. 31–39.
Regional Climate Outlook Forums Review Organising Committee, 2001, Coping with Climate: A Way Forward, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Publication IRI-CW/01/1,
Roncoli, C., Ingram, K. and Kirshen, P., 2001, ‘The Costs and Risks of Coping with Drought: Livelihood Impacts and Farmers’ Responses in Burkina Faso’, Climate Res., Vol. 19, pp. 119-132.
Roncoli, C., Ingram, K. and Kirshen, P., 2002, ‘Reading the Rains: Local Knowledge and Rainfall Forecasting in Burkina Faso’, Soc. Nat. Resour, Vol. 15, pp. 409-424.
Späth, H-J., 1997, ‘Fuelwood Crisis of Niamey: Vanishing Forests and Development of an Arid Island in the Sahel of Niger’, in H-J. Späth, ed., Land Use and Desertification in North and West Africa, Paderborner Geographische Studien, Band 6, pp. 55-88.
Stern, P. C., and Easterling, W. E., eds., 1999, Making Climate Forecasts Matter, Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Tarhule, A., 2005, ‘Damaging Rainfall and Flooding: The Other Sahel Hazards’, Climatic Change, Vol. 72, pp. 355-377.
Tarhule, A., and Lamb, P. J., 2003, Climate Research and Seasonal Forecasting for West Africans: Perceptions, Dissemination and Use?’, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 84, No. 12, pp. 1741-1759.
Tidjani, A. A., 1998, ‘Naufrage à la Vallée aux chauve souris’, Le Sahel, No. 5591, 23 July, 5.
USAID, 1999, FEWS Current Vulnerability Assessment Guidance Mannual, Washington DC: USAID. Available online at http:/fews.org/va/vahome.html. USAID, 2000, FEWS Sahel 1999/2000 Current Vulnerability Assessment, Washington DC: USAID. Available online at http://fews.org/va/vahome.html.
Van Apeldoorn, J. G., 1981, Perspectives on Drought and Famine in Nigeria. New York: Allen and Unwin.
World Bank, 1991, Food Security and Disasters in Africa: A Framework for Action. Africa Technical Department, Washington, DC: World Bank.