8 - The Impact of Short Message Services (SMS) Weather Forecasts on Cost, Yield and Income in Maize Production: Evidence from a Pilot Randomised Controlled Trial in Bembèrèkè, North Benin
Corresponding Author(s) : Rosaine N. Yegbemey
Africa Development,
Vol. 46 No. 1 (2021): Africa Development
Abstract
In this study we analyse the impact of weather forecasts provided to smallholder
maize farmers through mobile phone short message service on self-reported
labour costs, crop yield and income. We conducted a pilot field experiment,
involving 331 randomly selected eligible farmers in six villages. Randomisation
was done at the village level. We used three regression specifications to estimate
the impacts: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Generalised Estimating Equations
(GEE) with a small sample correction and Randomisation Inference (RI). We
found that the treatment and control groups were well balanced. Farmers in
the treatment group recorded lower labour costs but higher crop yield and
income levels. Both the direction and the magnitude of the impact estimates
were consistent across the three regression specifications, but significant with
the RI model only (for labour costs and yield) or the RI and GEE models
(for income). Weather forecasts can have an impact on smallholder farmers’
labour, yield and income. These findings are strong evidence of the possibility
of using weather-related information and mobile phones to build smallholder
farmers’ resilience to climate variability. Yet more research is required to build
a solid evidence base to inform agricultural policies.
Keywords
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- Amegnaglo, C.J., Anaman, K.A., Mensah-Bonsu, A., Onumah, E.E. and Amous- souga Gero, F., 2017, ‘Contingent valuation study of the benefits of seasonal climate forecasts for maize farmers in the Republic of Benin, West Africa’, Climate Services, Vol. 6, pp. 1-11. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1016/J. CLISER.2017.06.007.
- Asrat, P. and Simane, B., 2017, ‘Adaptation benefits of climate-smart agricultural practices in the Blue Nile Basin: Empirical evidence from North-West Ethiopia’, in W. Leal Filho, S. Belay, J.Kalangu, W. Menas, P. Munishi and K. Musiyiwa, eds, Climate change adaptation in Africa. Climate change management, Amsterdam: Springer. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49520-0_4.
- Baudoin, M.-A., Sanchez, A.C. and Fandohan, B., 2014, ‘Small scale farmers’ vulnerability to climatic changes in southern Benin: the importance of farmers’ perceptions of existing institutions’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 19, No. 8, pp. 1195-1207. Available online at https://doi. org/10.1007/s11027-013-9468-9.
- Baumüller, H., 2018, ‘The little we know: An exploratory literature review on the utility of mobile phone-enabled services for smallholder farmers’, Journal of International Development, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 134-154. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3314.
- Yegbemey, Aloukoutou & Aïhountou: The Impact of SMS Weather Forecasts Belay, A., Recha, J.W., Woldeamanuel, T. and Morton, J. F., 2017, ‘Smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate change and determinants of their adaptation decisions in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia’, Agriculture and Food Security, Vol. 6, No. 1. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-017-0100-1. Callo Concha, D., 2018, ‘Farmer perceptions and climate change adaptation in the West Africa Sudan savannah: Reality check in Dassari, Benin, and Dano, Burkina Faso’, Climate, Vol. 6, No. 2. Available online at https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020044.
- Camacho, A. and Conover, E., 2019, ‘The impact of receiving SMS price and weather information on small scale farmers in Colombia’, World Development, Vol. 123. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.06.020.
- Challinor, A.J., Watson, J., Lobell, D.B., Howden, S.M., Smith, D.R. and Chhetri, N., 2014, ‘A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation’, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 287-291. Available online at https:// doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153.
- Chiappetta, M., Hamza, A., Nagarajan, G. and Zaman, L., 2015, Systematic review of the effects of information and communications technology on expanding agricultural markets in developing countries, Arlington, VA: Social Impact, Inc.Cuni-Sanchez, A., Omeny, P., Pfeifer, M., Olaka, L., Mamo, M.B., Marchant, R. and Burgess, N.D., 2019, ‘Climate change and pastoralists: perceptions and adaptation in montane Kenya’, Climate and Development, Vol. 11, No. 6, pp. 513-524. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2018.1454880. Deaton, A. and Cartwright, N., 2018, ‘Understanding and misunderstanding rand- omized controlled trials’, Social Science & Medicine, Vol. 210, pp. 2-21. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SOCSCIMED.2017.12.005.
- Debela, N., Mohammed, C., Bridle, K., Corkrey, R. and McNeil, D., 2015, ‘Percep- tion of climate change and its impact by smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana, South Ethiopia’, SpringerPlus, Vol. 4, No. 1, p. 236. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064015-1012-9.
- Dillon, A. and Rao, L.N., 2018, ‘Land measurement bias: Comparisons from global positioning system, self-reports, and satellite data’, SSRN Electronic Journal. Available online at https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3188522.
- Fadina, A.M.R. and Barjolle, D., 2018, ‘Farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change and their implications in the Zou department of South Benin’, Environ- ments, Vol. 5, No. 1, p. 15. Available online at https://doi.org/10.3390/environ- ments5010015.
- Fafchamps, M. and Minten, B., 2012, ‘Impact of SMS-based agricultural information on Indian farmers’, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 383-414. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhr056.
- Foguesatto, C.R., Artuzo, F.D., Talamini, E. and Machado, J.A.D., 2018, ‘Un- derstanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review’, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Vol. 22, pp. 1-16. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-0193-0.
- Africa Development, Volume XLVI, No. 1, 2021
- Groote, H. De and Coulibaly, N.,1998, ‘Gender and generation: An intra-household analysis on access to resources in southern Mali’, African Crop Science Journal, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 79-95.
- Guan, K., Sultan, B., Biasutti, M., Baron, C. and Lobell, D.B., 2017, ‘Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa’, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 232, pp. 291-305. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1016/J.AGRFORMET.2016.07.021.
- Hathie, I., MacCarthy, D.S., Valdivia, R., Antle, J., Adam, M. and Adiku, S.G.K., 2018, ‘Climate change impacts on current and future agricultural systems in the semi-arid regions of West Africa’ in Abstracts of the 7th AgMIP Global Workshop, San José, Costa Rica, 24-26 April 2018.
- Hess, S., 2017, ‘Randomization inference with stata’, Stata Journal, Vol. 17, No. 3,pp. 630-651. Available online at https://doi.org/The Stata Journal.
- Heubach, K., Wittig, R., Nuppenau, E.-A. and Hahn, K., 2011, ‘The economic importance of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) for livelihood maintenance of rural west African communities: A case study from northern Benin’, Ecologi- cal Economics, Vol. 70, No. 11, pp. 1991-2001. Available online at https://doi. org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.05.015.
- Huffman, W.E., 1977, ‘Allocative efficiency: The role of human capital’, The Quar- terly Journal of Economics, Vol. 91, No. 1, p. 59. Available online at https://doi. org/10.2307/1883138.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013, Summary for policymak- ers, Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
- Kilic, T., Moylan, H., Ilukor, J., Mtengula, C. and Pangapanga-Phiri, I., 2018, Root for the tubers: Extended-harvest crop production and productivity measurement in surveys, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 8618. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8618. Leyrat, C., Morgan, K.E., Leurent, B. and Kahan, B.C., 2018, ‘Cluster randomized trials with a small number of clusters: Which analyses should be used?’, Interna- tional Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 321-331. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyx169.
- Ministère de l’Environnment, de l’Habitat et de l’Urbanisme (MEHU), 2011, 'Deux- ième communication nationale de la République du Bénin sur les changements climatiques'. Available online at http://www.agrhymet.ne/portailCC/images/ pdf/nc2benin.pdf.
- Muller, S.M., 2015, ‘Causal Interaction and external validity: Obstacles to the policy relevance of randomized evaluations’ The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 29 (suppl 1), S217-S225. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhv027. Opiyo, F., Wasonga, O.V., Nyangito, M.M., Mureithi, S.M., Obando, J. and Mu- nang, R., 2016, ‘Determinants of perceptions of climate change and adaptation among Turkana pastoralists in northwestern Kenya’, Climate and Development,
- Yegbemey, Aloukoutou & Aïhountou: The Impact of SMS Weather Forecasts187 Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 179-189. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/17565 529.2015.1034231.
References
Amegnaglo, C.J., Anaman, K.A., Mensah-Bonsu, A., Onumah, E.E. and Amous- souga Gero, F., 2017, ‘Contingent valuation study of the benefits of seasonal climate forecasts for maize farmers in the Republic of Benin, West Africa’, Climate Services, Vol. 6, pp. 1-11. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1016/J. CLISER.2017.06.007.
Asrat, P. and Simane, B., 2017, ‘Adaptation benefits of climate-smart agricultural practices in the Blue Nile Basin: Empirical evidence from North-West Ethiopia’, in W. Leal Filho, S. Belay, J.Kalangu, W. Menas, P. Munishi and K. Musiyiwa, eds, Climate change adaptation in Africa. Climate change management, Amsterdam: Springer. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49520-0_4.
Baudoin, M.-A., Sanchez, A.C. and Fandohan, B., 2014, ‘Small scale farmers’ vulnerability to climatic changes in southern Benin: the importance of farmers’ perceptions of existing institutions’, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 19, No. 8, pp. 1195-1207. Available online at https://doi. org/10.1007/s11027-013-9468-9.
Baumüller, H., 2018, ‘The little we know: An exploratory literature review on the utility of mobile phone-enabled services for smallholder farmers’, Journal of International Development, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 134-154. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3314.
Yegbemey, Aloukoutou & Aïhountou: The Impact of SMS Weather Forecasts Belay, A., Recha, J.W., Woldeamanuel, T. and Morton, J. F., 2017, ‘Smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate change and determinants of their adaptation decisions in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia’, Agriculture and Food Security, Vol. 6, No. 1. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-017-0100-1. Callo Concha, D., 2018, ‘Farmer perceptions and climate change adaptation in the West Africa Sudan savannah: Reality check in Dassari, Benin, and Dano, Burkina Faso’, Climate, Vol. 6, No. 2. Available online at https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020044.
Camacho, A. and Conover, E., 2019, ‘The impact of receiving SMS price and weather information on small scale farmers in Colombia’, World Development, Vol. 123. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.06.020.
Challinor, A.J., Watson, J., Lobell, D.B., Howden, S.M., Smith, D.R. and Chhetri, N., 2014, ‘A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation’, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 287-291. Available online at https:// doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153.
Chiappetta, M., Hamza, A., Nagarajan, G. and Zaman, L., 2015, Systematic review of the effects of information and communications technology on expanding agricultural markets in developing countries, Arlington, VA: Social Impact, Inc.Cuni-Sanchez, A., Omeny, P., Pfeifer, M., Olaka, L., Mamo, M.B., Marchant, R. and Burgess, N.D., 2019, ‘Climate change and pastoralists: perceptions and adaptation in montane Kenya’, Climate and Development, Vol. 11, No. 6, pp. 513-524. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2018.1454880. Deaton, A. and Cartwright, N., 2018, ‘Understanding and misunderstanding rand- omized controlled trials’, Social Science & Medicine, Vol. 210, pp. 2-21. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SOCSCIMED.2017.12.005.
Debela, N., Mohammed, C., Bridle, K., Corkrey, R. and McNeil, D., 2015, ‘Percep- tion of climate change and its impact by smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana, South Ethiopia’, SpringerPlus, Vol. 4, No. 1, p. 236. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064015-1012-9.
Dillon, A. and Rao, L.N., 2018, ‘Land measurement bias: Comparisons from global positioning system, self-reports, and satellite data’, SSRN Electronic Journal. Available online at https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3188522.
Fadina, A.M.R. and Barjolle, D., 2018, ‘Farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change and their implications in the Zou department of South Benin’, Environ- ments, Vol. 5, No. 1, p. 15. Available online at https://doi.org/10.3390/environ- ments5010015.
Fafchamps, M. and Minten, B., 2012, ‘Impact of SMS-based agricultural information on Indian farmers’, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 383-414. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhr056.
Foguesatto, C.R., Artuzo, F.D., Talamini, E. and Machado, J.A.D., 2018, ‘Un- derstanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review’, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Vol. 22, pp. 1-16. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-0193-0.
Africa Development, Volume XLVI, No. 1, 2021
Groote, H. De and Coulibaly, N.,1998, ‘Gender and generation: An intra-household analysis on access to resources in southern Mali’, African Crop Science Journal, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 79-95.
Guan, K., Sultan, B., Biasutti, M., Baron, C. and Lobell, D.B., 2017, ‘Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa’, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 232, pp. 291-305. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1016/J.AGRFORMET.2016.07.021.
Hathie, I., MacCarthy, D.S., Valdivia, R., Antle, J., Adam, M. and Adiku, S.G.K., 2018, ‘Climate change impacts on current and future agricultural systems in the semi-arid regions of West Africa’ in Abstracts of the 7th AgMIP Global Workshop, San José, Costa Rica, 24-26 April 2018.
Hess, S., 2017, ‘Randomization inference with stata’, Stata Journal, Vol. 17, No. 3,pp. 630-651. Available online at https://doi.org/The Stata Journal.
Heubach, K., Wittig, R., Nuppenau, E.-A. and Hahn, K., 2011, ‘The economic importance of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) for livelihood maintenance of rural west African communities: A case study from northern Benin’, Ecologi- cal Economics, Vol. 70, No. 11, pp. 1991-2001. Available online at https://doi. org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.05.015.
Huffman, W.E., 1977, ‘Allocative efficiency: The role of human capital’, The Quar- terly Journal of Economics, Vol. 91, No. 1, p. 59. Available online at https://doi. org/10.2307/1883138.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013, Summary for policymak- ers, Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
Kilic, T., Moylan, H., Ilukor, J., Mtengula, C. and Pangapanga-Phiri, I., 2018, Root for the tubers: Extended-harvest crop production and productivity measurement in surveys, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 8618. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8618. Leyrat, C., Morgan, K.E., Leurent, B. and Kahan, B.C., 2018, ‘Cluster randomized trials with a small number of clusters: Which analyses should be used?’, Interna- tional Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 321-331. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyx169.
Ministère de l’Environnment, de l’Habitat et de l’Urbanisme (MEHU), 2011, 'Deux- ième communication nationale de la République du Bénin sur les changements climatiques'. Available online at http://www.agrhymet.ne/portailCC/images/ pdf/nc2benin.pdf.
Muller, S.M., 2015, ‘Causal Interaction and external validity: Obstacles to the policy relevance of randomized evaluations’ The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 29 (suppl 1), S217-S225. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhv027. Opiyo, F., Wasonga, O.V., Nyangito, M.M., Mureithi, S.M., Obando, J. and Mu- nang, R., 2016, ‘Determinants of perceptions of climate change and adaptation among Turkana pastoralists in northwestern Kenya’, Climate and Development,
Yegbemey, Aloukoutou & Aïhountou: The Impact of SMS Weather Forecasts187 Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 179-189. Available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/17565 529.2015.1034231.